I loko o ke kahua o ka pōʻai hou o ka hoʻokahuli ʻepekema a me ka ʻenehana a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka lāhui waiwai honua, ua emi ka lako o ka mana hou, ʻoiai ke hoʻonui mau ʻia nei nā kahua e kū mai ana ma hope. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau nā ʻāpana pili e like me nā mea fluorine, nā kemika phosphorus, aramid a me nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe. Manaʻolana nō hoʻi ia e pili ana i kona mau manaʻolana hoʻomohala.
ʻOihana kemika fluorine: Ke hoʻonui mau nei ka mākeke
I ka makahiki 2022, ua ʻālohilohi ka hana a nā ʻoihana i helu ʻia he fluorochemical. Wahi a nā helu helu piha ʻole, i nā hapaha mua ʻekolu, ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā o nā ʻoihana i helu ʻia he 10 a ʻoi aku i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā o kekahi mau ʻoihana ma mua o 6 mau manawa i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Mai ka refrigerant a i ka mea hou o ka fluoride, a i nā pila lithium ikehu hou, ua hoʻonui mau nā huahana kemika fluoride i kā lākou mākeke me kā lākou mau pono hana kūikawā.
ʻO ka Fluorite ka mea maka mua koʻikoʻi loa no ke kaulahao ʻoihana fluorochemical. ʻO ka waikawa hydrofluoric i hana ʻia me nā mea maka ke kumu o ka ʻoihana kemika fluorous hou. Ma ke ʻano he kikowaena o ke kaulahao ʻoihana fluorochemical holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ka waikawa hydrofluoric ka mea maka kumu no ka hana ʻana i nā huahana kemika fluorine midstream a me downstream. ʻO nā ʻoihana nui o kona downstream e komo pū me ka refrigerant.
Wahi a ka "Montreal Protocol", i ka makahiki 2024, e paʻa ka hana ʻana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ʻekolu hanauna o nā refrigerants ma koʻu ʻāina ma ka pae baseline. Manaʻo ka Yangtze Securities Research Report ma hope o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka quota refrigerant ʻekolu hanauna, hiki i nā ʻoihana ke hoʻi i kahi pae lako i hoʻonohonoho ʻia i ka mākeke. Ua paʻa kūhelu ʻia ka quota o ka refrigerant ʻekolu hanauna i ka makahiki 2024, a ua hoʻemi ʻia ka quota cumulative o ka refrigerant ʻelua hanauna i ka makahiki 2025 e 67.5%. Manaʻo ʻia e lawe mai i kahi hakahaka lako o 140,000 tons/makahiki. Ma ke ʻano o ke koi, aia nō ka paʻakikī o ka ʻoihana waiwai paʻa. Ma lalo o ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka pale ʻana a me ka kaohi ʻana i nā maʻi ahulau, hiki i nā ʻoihana e like me nā lako home ke hoʻōla mālie. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻohuli ʻia ʻekolu hanauna o ka refrigerant mai ka lalo o ka boom.
Ua wānana ka China Business Industry Research Institute me ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ikehu hou, nā kaʻa ikehu hou, nā semiconductors, nā mea uila, a me nā ʻoihana lapaʻau, nā mea waena e loaʻa ana ka fluorine, ka monomer fluoride kūikawā, ka mea hoʻoluʻolu fluoride, ke ʻano hou o ka mea kinai ahi e loaʻa ana ka fluorine, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. Ua hoʻomau ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā ʻano ʻenehana kemika maikaʻi e loaʻa ana ka fluorine i ka hohonu. Ke hoʻonui mau ʻia nei ka mākeke o kēia mau ʻoihana ma hope, kahi e lawe mai ai i nā wahi ulu hou i ka ʻoihana kemika fluorous.
Manaʻo ʻo China Galaxy Securities lāua ʻo Guosen Securities e hoʻomau ka hoʻonui ʻana o nā mea kemika kiʻekiʻe i ka helu localization, me ka manaʻolana e pili ana i nā papa fluorite e like me ka fluorite-refrigerant.
ʻOihana kemika phosphorus: Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka laulā o ka noi ma hope
I ka makahiki 2022, i hoʻopilikia ʻia e nā hoʻoponopono hoʻonohonoho ʻaoʻao lako a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu "mana pālua", ʻo ka mana hana hou o nā huahana kemika phosphorus he palena palena o ka mana hana a me nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe, e kau ana i ke kahua hana no ka ʻāpana kemika phosphorus.
ʻO ka phosphate ore ke kumu maka no ke kaulahao ʻoihana kemika phosphate. ʻO ka mea ma lalo e komo pū ana me ka mea hoʻoulu phosphate, ka phosphate papa meaʻai, ka lithium iron phosphate a me nā huahana ʻē aʻe. I waena o lākou, ʻo ka lithium iron phosphate ka māhele waiwai loa i ke kaulahao ʻoihana kemika phosphate o kēia manawa.
Ua maopopo ʻia ʻo kēlā me kēia 1 tone o ka hao phosphate e hana ʻia e 0.5 ~ 0.65 tons, a me 0.8 tons o hoʻokahi ammonium phosphate. ʻO ka ulu wikiwiki o ke koi lithium hao phosphate ma ke kaulahao ʻoihana a hiki i ka hoʻoili ʻana i luna e hoʻonui i ke koi no ka phosphate ore ma ke kahua o ka ikehu hou. I ke kaʻina hana maoli, pono ka pākahiko lithium hao phosphate 1gWh i 2500 tons o nā mea orthopedic lithium hao phosphate, e like me 1440 tons o ka phosphate (pelu, ʻo ia hoʻi, P2O5 = 100%). Ua manaʻo ʻia ma ka makahiki 2025, e hiki aku ke koi no ka hao phosphate i 1.914 miliona tons, a ʻo ke koi like no ka phosphate ore he 1.11 miliona tons, e helu ana ma kahi o 4.2% o ka nui o ke koi no ka phosphate ore.
Manaʻo ka Guosen Securities Research Report e hoʻolaha pū nā mea he nui i ka pōmaikaʻi nui o ke kaulahao ʻoihana kemika phosphorus. Mai ka manaʻo o uka, ma ke ʻano o ka piʻi ʻana o ka paepae komo o ka ʻoihana i ka wā e hiki mai ana a me ke kaomi kiʻekiʻe o ka palekana o ke kaiapuni, e hoʻomau ka paʻa ʻana o kona ʻaoʻao lako, a ʻike nui ʻia nā ʻano nele o nā kumuwaiwai. Ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai ikehu haole e hoʻolaha i ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o nā kemika phosphorus ma waho, a ua ʻike ʻia ka pōmaikaʻi kumukūʻai o nā ʻoihana kūloko pili. Eia kekahi, ʻo ka pilikia palaoa honua a me ke kaʻina holomua mahiʻai e hoʻolaha i ka noi piʻi no ka mea hoʻoulu phosphate; ʻo ka ulu nui ʻana o nā pila hao phosphate e hāʻawi pū i ka hoʻonui nui ʻana i ke koi no ka phosphate ore.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Capital Securities ʻo ke kumu nui o kahi pōʻai hou o ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā kumuwaiwai honua ʻo ia ke kaʻina hana o ka hana ʻana, me ka lawa ʻole o ka hoʻolilo kālā kapikala i nā makahiki 5-10 i hala o nā kumuwaiwai mineral, me ka nele o ka hoʻolilo kālā kapikala i nā makahiki 5-10 i hala, a ʻo ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka mana hou e lōʻihi ka manawa. He paʻakikī ke hoʻomaha i ka haunaele o ka makahiki i ka lako o ka phosphorus ore.
Manaʻo nā palekana open source ua hoʻomau ka holomua o ke ala ikehu hou a ua manaʻolana lākou no nā mea waiwai e like me nā kemika phosphorus no ka manawa lōʻihi.
ʻAramida：ʻO ka hana hou e hoʻokō ai i kahi ʻoihana holomua
Me ka ulu wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana ʻike, ua huki nui ʻia ka manaʻo o ka aramid mai ka mākeke kapikala.
ʻO ke olonā aramid kekahi o nā olonā hana kiʻekiʻe ʻekolu ma ka honua. Hoʻokomo ʻia ia i loko o ka ʻoihana hoʻolālā aupuni e kū mai ana a he mea hoʻolālā kiʻekiʻe hoʻi no ke kākoʻo lōʻihi o ka ʻāina. I ʻApelila 2022, ua manaʻo pū ke Kuhina o ka ʻOihana a me ka ʻIke ʻIke a me ke Komisina Hoʻomohala a me ka Hoʻoponopono Lahui he mea pono e hoʻomaikaʻi i ka pae o ka hana ʻana o ke olonā hana kiʻekiʻe a kākoʻo i ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka aramid ma ke kahua kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe.
ʻElua ʻano hoʻonohonoho o ka aramid o ka aramid a me ka medium, a ʻo ka mea nui ma lalo e komo pū ana me nā ʻoihana kaula fiber fiber. Hōʻike ka ʻikepili i ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke aramid honua he US $ 3.9 biliona, a manaʻo ʻia e piʻi aʻe i US $ 6.3 biliona i ka makahiki 2026, me ka nui o ka ulu makahiki hui o 9.7%.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua ulu wikiwiki ka ʻoihana kaula fiber optical o Kina a ua lele i kahi mua o ka honua. Wahi a nā helu helu mai ke Kuhina o ka ʻOihana a me ka ʻIke ʻIke, ua hiki ka lōʻihi o ka laina kaula optical aupuni i ka makahiki 2021 i 54.88 miliona kilomita, a ua kokoke ke koi no nā huahana aramid kiʻekiʻe i 4,000 tons, kahi e hilinaʻi nei 90% i nā mea i lawe ʻia mai. I ka hapa mua o 2022, ua hiki ka lōʻihi o ka laina kaula optical aupuni i 57.91 miliona kilomita, he piʻi ʻana o 8.2% i kēlā me kēia makahiki.
Manaʻo ʻo Yangtze Securities, Huaxin Securities, a me Guosen Securities e pili ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana, e holomua mālie nā kūlana o nā lako palekana ponoʻī ma waena o ka aramid, a e mau ana ka ikaika o ke koi no ka aramid ma ke kahua o ke kamaʻilio optical a me ka rubber. Eia kekahi, ua ākea ka noi mākeke no ka mākeke uhi lithium -electrodermilida. Me ka wikiwiki o nā koho kūloko o ka aramid, manaʻo ʻia e piʻi nui ka pae o ka domesticization i ka wā e hiki mai ana, a he mea kūpono ke nānā ʻia nā waihona ʻāpana pili.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Ian-10-2023