Ke kolo nei ka makahiki 2023. Me ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kulekele pale a me ka hoʻomalu ʻana i ka maʻi maʻi, ka ikaika o nā ana e hoʻopaʻa i ka ulu a me ka hopena haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, ua wānana kekahi mau noiʻi noiʻi e piʻi nui ka ulu ʻana o ka GDP o Kina i kēia makahiki.Ma ke ʻano he ʻoihana kia o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka ʻāina, hoʻopili ka ʻoihana kemika i nā kumuwaiwai like ʻole a me ka ikehu i uka, ʻoiai ʻo ka lalo e pili pono ana i nā pono o kēlā me kēia lā o ka poʻe.I ka makahiki 2023, pono e noʻonoʻo ka ʻoihana kemika i ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka pōʻaiapili waiwai a me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke ala, no laila ʻo wai nā wahi e lilo i ke kapikala ikaika loa?I mea e hōʻoluʻolu ai i ka poʻe heluhelu, e hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā hoʻolālā ʻaila a me nā kemika o nā hui palekana e like me Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities a me China Merchants Securities.
Ua hōʻike maopopo ʻia ka Central Economic Work Conference e pono e hoʻoikaika ʻia e hoʻonui i ka noi kūloko, a ʻo ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana o ke kulekele hoʻomalu maʻi maʻi i hoʻolalelale i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ka mākeke kūʻai kūloko.Ma lalo o ka manaʻolana holoʻokoʻa, manaʻo ka nui o nā brokerages: I ka makahiki 2023, manaʻo ʻia ke koi no kekahi mau huahana kemika e hoʻihoʻi hou i ka ulu ʻana, a ʻo ka pā kemika hou e pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka ikehu hou, ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu, semiconductor a me ka ʻoihana koa. mālama i kahi ʻoihana kiʻekiʻe.I waena o lākou, nā mea semiconductor, nā mea photovoltaic, nā mea lithium a me nā mea ʻē aʻe e kūpono i ka nānā ʻana o nā mea hoʻopukapuka.
Nā mea semiconductor: e hoʻohana pono i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka home e hoʻolalelale i ka holomua
I ka makahiki 2022, ma muli o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua a me ka holomua o ka pōʻaiapuni o ka ʻoihana a me ka hopena mau o ka maʻi maʻi, ua kū ka ʻoihana uila holoʻokoʻa i kekahi kaomi hana.Akā ma ka laulā, ke ulu mau nei ka ʻoihana semiconductor o Kina.
Ua hōʻike ʻo Guoxin Securities Research Report ʻo ka helu localization o nā mea semiconductor i koʻu ʻāina ma kahi o 10% wale nō i 2021, a ua hemahema ia ma nā ʻōlelo o ka waiwai a me ka hoʻokūkū.Eia naʻe, i ka wā lōʻihi, e hoʻomaka ana ka ʻoihana kaapuni hoʻohui ʻia o koʻu ʻāina i ke ala o ka hana hou kūʻokoʻa.Manaʻo ʻia e hiki ke loaʻa nā kumuwaiwai a me nā manawa hou aku i nā lako a me nā lako hale, a ke manaʻo ʻia e pōkole ka pōʻaiapuni ʻokoʻa kūloko.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua piʻi mau ka noi no nā noi semiconductor a me nā mākeke kūʻai.I ka makahiki 2021, ua hōʻea nā kūʻai semiconductor honua i 555.9 biliona kālā ʻAmelika, kahi hoʻonui o US $ 45.5 biliona ma mua o 2020;ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau i ka ulu ʻana ma 2022, a ʻo nā kūʻai semiconductor e hōʻea i US $ 601,4 biliona.Nui nā ʻano mea semiconductor, a ʻo nā mea kiʻekiʻe ʻekolu ma ka mākeke ʻo nā wafers silicon, nā kinoea, a me ka hoʻoheheʻe māmā.Eia kekahi, ʻo ka māhele mākeke o ka wai polishing a me nā pad polishing, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemical, a me sputtering targets he 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, a me 3.0%, kēlā me kēia.
Manaʻo ʻo Guangfa Securities Research Report ʻo ka ʻoki ʻana i ke kahua o nā mea semiconductor (kemika uila) ma o ka noiʻi endogenous a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻohui ʻana a me ka loaʻa ʻana he kumu maʻamau no nā ʻoihana kemika e ʻimi i ka loli i nā makahiki i hala.ʻOiai hiki i nā ʻoihana hoʻololi kūleʻa ke loaʻa nā kumukūʻai mākeke kiʻekiʻe aʻe i ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi ʻoihana wikiwiki, ua hoʻomaka mākou i kahi nalu o ka ulu ʻelua.I ka nalu o ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana semiconductor home, ua hoʻolauna pū nā hui waiwai pili i kahi manawa kūpono no ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka home.ʻO kekahi mau hui me ka ikaika R&D ikaika a me nā pae kūʻai kūleʻa kūleʻa, a me ka hoʻololi ʻana a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana o ka huahana e manaʻo ʻia e kaʻana like i ka ulu wikiwiki o ka ʻoihana semiconductor.
Hōʻike ʻo Ping An Securities Research he nui nā kumu e like me ka "silicon cycle" a me ka macroeconomic cycles, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei ka ʻoihana semiconductor i lalo i 2023.
Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ka Western Securities Research Report ʻo ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka mana hoʻokele US e hoʻolalelale i ke ʻano o ka home o nā mea semiconductor.Manaʻo lākou e pili ana i nā mea semiconductor, nā ʻāpana a me nā mea pili, a me ka mākeke carbide silicon.
Photovoltaic Material: He ʻumi biliona-level POE mākeke e kali nei e wāwahi
I ka makahiki 2022, ma lalo o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ke kulekele o koʻu ʻāina, ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka nui o nā mea hoʻokomo hou i ka ʻoihana photovoltaic home, a ua hoʻonui pū ʻia ke koi no ke kiʻi ʻoniʻoni photovoltaic.
Hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā mea kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi i ʻelua ʻano: ethylene -ethyl acetate community (EVA) a me polyolefin elastomer (POE).ʻO EVA, ʻo ia ka mea nui o ka kiʻiʻoniʻoni kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻekiʻe o ka lawe ʻana mai, a he wahi nui no ka localization i ka wā e hiki mai ana.I ka manawa like, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ka noi no EVA ma ke kahua o ke kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi i koʻu ʻāina ma 2025 hiki ke piʻi i ka 45.05%.
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia kekahi mea waiwai POE i ka photovoltaic, nā kaʻa, nā kaula, ka huʻa, nā mea pono home a me nā māla ʻē aʻe.I kēia manawa, ua lilo ke kiʻi paʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi ʻoniʻoni i wahi noi nui loa o POE.Wahi a ka "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", ua hoʻonui ʻia ka māhele mākeke o ke kiʻi ʻoniʻoni ʻoniʻoni POE home a me ka foam polyethylene (EPE) glue film ma 2021 i 23.1%.I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, me ka piʻi mau ʻana o ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā mea photovoltaic i koʻu ʻāina a me ke komo mau ʻana o POE i ke kiʻi ʻoniʻoni kiʻi photovoltaic, ua piʻi mau ka noi POE home.
Eia nō naʻe, no ka mea he nui nā pale o ka hana POE, i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole hiki i nā hui kūloko ke POE, a ke hilinaʻi nei ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka POE ma koʻu ʻāina i ka lawe ʻana mai.Mai ka makahiki 2017, ua hoʻomohala nā ʻoihana kūloko i nā huahana POE.ʻO Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry a me nā ʻoihana pilikino ʻē aʻe e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻokō i ka pani home o POE i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
ʻO nā mea pākaukau Lithium: ua hoʻonui hou ʻia nā hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea nui ʻehā
I ka makahiki 2022, ua noho kiʻekiʻe ke kaʻa kaʻa hou o Kina a me ka mākeke mālama ʻana i ka ikehu pākahi lithium, e hoʻonui nui ana i ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea pākaukau lithium.Wahi a ka ʻikepili China Automobile Association, mai Ianuali a Nowemapa 2022, ua hoʻopau ka hana a me ke kūʻai ʻana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou i ka 6.253 miliona a me 6.067 miliona, kēlā me kēia, he awelika makahiki-ma-makahiki hoʻonui, a hiki i ka mākeke ma 25%.
Manaʻo ka High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) e kūʻai aku ma mua o 6.7 miliona hale kūʻai kaʻa kaʻa hou i 2022;ua manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa hou o Kina ma mua o 9 miliona ma 2023. I ka makahiki 2022, ua manaʻo ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka nui o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka lithium lithium ma mua o 100%, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka mana uila ma mua o 110%, a me ka nui o ka ulu ʻana. ʻOi aku ka nui o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka pā uila lithium ma mua o 150%.ʻO ka ulu nui ʻana o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pahu lithium ua alakaʻi i nā mea nui ʻehā o ka maikaʻi, maikaʻi ʻole, diaphragm, electrolyte, a me nā mea pākaukau lithium ʻē aʻe e like me ka lithium hexfluorophosphate a me ke keleawe keleawe i nā pae like ʻole.
Hōʻike nā ʻikepili i ka hapa mua o 2022, ua hoʻouna ʻo Kina Lithium Electric Electronic Materials i 770,000 tons, he piʻi o 62% makahiki -ma ka makahiki;ʻO ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea electrode maikaʻi ʻole he 540,000 tons, kahi hoʻonui o 68% makahiki-ma-makahiki;55%;ʻO ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā electrolyte he 330,000 tons, kahi hoʻonui o 63% makahiki-ma-makahiki.Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, i ka makahiki 2022, ʻo nā hoʻouna holoʻokoʻa o nā pā lithium nui ʻehā ma Kina i mau ka ulu ulu.
Ua wānana ʻo GGII e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mākeke pākaukau lithium home ma mua o 1TWh i ka makahiki 2023. Ma waena o lākou, manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka uila uila ma mua o 800GWh, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻouna ʻana i ka ikehu i ka 180GWh. .
ʻOiai ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai o ka lithium ore a me ka paʻakai lithium i Dekemaba 2022. Eia nō naʻe, i ka maka o nā brokers, ʻo ka mea nui kēia ma muli o ka hopena o ka manawa, a ʻaʻole i hiki mai ka "inflection point" o nā kumukūʻai lithium.
Manaʻo ʻo Huaxi Securities ʻo ka loli o ke kumukūʻai o ka paʻakai lithium ka loli maʻamau o ka wā kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻoihana, ʻaʻole ia he "inflection point".Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻo Shen Wanhongyuan Securities me ka hoʻokuʻu hou ʻana o nā mea hana maka i ka makahiki 2023, e hoʻomau ʻia ke ʻano o ka loaʻa kālā o ke kaulahao ʻoihana pākaukau lithium mai luna a lalo.Manaʻo ʻo Zhejiang Business Securities ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hōʻoia ʻana o nā kumuwaiwai lithium ma mua o ka mea i koi ʻia ma ka hapa lua o 2023.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-10-2023