Ke komo mai nei ka makahiki 2023. Me ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kulekele pale a me ka kaohi ʻana i nā maʻi ahulau, ka ikaika o nā hana e hoʻopaʻa ai i ka ulu ʻana a me ka hopena haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, ua wānana kekahi mau ʻoihana noiʻi e hoʻi hou ka ulu ʻana o ka GDP o Kina i kēlā me kēia makahiki i kēia makahiki. Ma ke ʻano he ʻoihana kia o ka hoʻokele waiwai aupuni, hoʻopili ka ʻoihana kemika i nā kumuwaiwai like ʻole a me ka ikehu ma luna, ʻoiai ʻo ka ma lalo e pili pono ana i nā pono o kēlā me kēia lā o ka poʻe. I ka makahiki 2023, pono e noʻonoʻo ka ʻoihana kemika i nā loli o ka pōʻaiapuni waihona a me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke ala, no laila ʻo wai nā wahi e lilo i ka tuyere kapikala ikaika loa? I mea e māʻona ai ka poʻe heluhelu, e hoʻonohonoho pono ʻia nā hoʻolālā hoʻopukapuka ʻaila a me nā kemika o nā ʻoihana palekana e like me Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities a me China Merchants Securities.
Ua ʻōlelo maopopo ka ʻAha Kūkākūkā Hana Hoʻokele Waiwai Waena i hala koke nei e pono e hoʻoikaika e hoʻonui i ke koi kūloko, a ʻo ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana o ke kulekele kaohi ahulau ua wikiwiki i ka hoʻōla ʻana o ka mākeke mea kūʻai kūloko. Ma lalo o ka manaʻolana piha, manaʻoʻiʻo kekahi mau brokerages: I ka makahiki 2023, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻōla hou ke koi no kekahi mau huahana kemika i ka ulu ʻana, a ʻo ka papa mea kemika hou i komo i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka ikehu hou, ka mālama ikehu, ka semiconductor a me ka ʻoihana koa e mālama mau i kahi ʻoihana kiʻekiʻe. I waena o lākou, ʻo nā mea semiconductor, nā mea photovoltaic, nā mea lithium a pēlā aku he mea kūpono loa i ka nānā ʻana o nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā.
Nā mea Semiconductor: e hoʻohana i ka hoʻololi kūloko e hoʻolalelale i ka holomua
I ka makahiki 2022, ma muli o ke kaiapuni hoʻokele waiwai honua a me nā loli o ka pōʻaiapuni holomua o ka ʻoihana a me ka hopena pinepine o ka maʻi ahulau, ua kū ka ʻoihana uila holoʻokoʻa i kekahi kaomi hana. Akā ma ke ʻano laulā, ke ulu mau nei ka ʻoihana semiconductor o Kina.
Ua kuhikuhi ka Hōʻike Noiʻi Palekana ʻo Guoxin ʻo ka nui o ka localization o nā mea semiconductor ma koʻu ʻāina he 10% wale nō i ka makahiki 2021, a ua hemahema ia ma ke ʻano o ka waiwai o ka mahele a me ka hoʻokūkū. Eia nō naʻe, i ka wā lōʻihi, e hoʻomaka ka ʻoihana kaapuni hoʻohui o koʻu ʻāina ma ke ala o ka hana hou kūʻokoʻa. Manaʻo ʻia e loaʻa i nā mea hana kūloko a me nā lako nā kumuwaiwai a me nā manawa kūpono hou aʻe, a manaʻo ʻia e pōkole ke kaʻina hana koho kūloko.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua piʻi mau ke koi no nā noi semiconductor a me nā mākeke mea kūʻai aku. I ka makahiki 2021, ua hōʻea ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā semiconductor honua i 555.9 biliona kālā US, he piʻi ʻana o US $ 45.5 biliona ma mua o 2020; manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka ulu ʻana i ka makahiki 2022, a e hōʻea ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā semiconductor i US $ 601.4 biliona. Nui nā ʻano mea semiconductor, a ʻo nā mea ʻekolu kiʻekiʻe loa ma ka māhele mākeke he mau wafers silicon, nā kinoea, a me ka hoʻoheheʻe māmā. Eia kekahi, ʻo ka māhele mākeke o ka wai polishing a me nā pads polishing, nā reagents adhesive lithography, lithography, nā kemika pulu, a me nā pahuhopu sputtering he 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, a me 3.0%.
Manaʻo ka Guangfa Securities Research Report ʻo ka ʻoki ʻana i ke kahua o nā mea semiconductor (nā kemika uila) ma o ka noiʻi endogenous a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā hui a me nā loaʻa he kumu hoʻohālike maʻamau no nā ʻoihana kemika e ʻimi i ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā makahiki i hala iho nei. ʻOiai hiki i nā ʻoihana hoʻololi holomua ke loaʻa nā loiloi mākeke kiʻekiʻe aʻe me ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi ʻoihana wikiwiki, ua alakaʻi mākou i kahi nalu o ka ulu pālua. I ka nalu o ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana semiconductor kūloko, ua alakaʻi pū nā ʻoihana mea pili i kahi manawa kūpono no ka hoʻololi kūloko. Manaʻo ʻia kekahi mau ʻoihana me ka ikaika R & D ikaika a me nā pae kūʻai kūleʻa, a me ka hoʻololi huahana holomua a me ka hoʻonui ʻana e kaʻana like i ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o ka ʻoihana semiconductor.
Ua hōʻike ʻo Ping An Securities Research he nui nā kumu e like me ka "silicon cycle" a me nā macroeconomic cycles, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e emi iho ka ʻoihana semiconductor i ka makahiki 2023.
Manaʻo ka Western Securities Research Report e hoʻolalelale ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka mana hoʻokuʻu aku o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ke koho kūloko o nā mea semiconductor. Ua manaʻolana lākou e pili ana i nā mea semiconductor, nā ʻāpana a me nā lako e pili ana, a me ka mākeke silicon carbide.
Mea Photovoltaic: Ke kali nei ka mākeke POE he ʻumi piliona e uhaʻi
I ka makahiki 2022, ma lalo o ka hoʻolaha ʻana o ke kulekele o koʻu ʻāina, ua piʻi nui ka nui o nā hoʻonohonoho hou i ka ʻoihana photovoltaic kūloko, a ua piʻi pū ke koi no ka ʻili photovoltaic glue.
Ua māhele ʻia nā mea maka o ka ʻili photovoltaic glue i ʻelua ʻano: ke kaiāulu ethylene-ethyl acetate (EVA) a me ka polyolefin elastomer (POE). ʻO EVA, ma ke ʻano he mea maka nui o kēia manawa o ka ʻili photovoltaic glue, he kiʻekiʻe ke hilinaʻi ʻana i ka lawe ʻia mai, a he wahi nui no ka localization i ka wā e hiki mai ana. I ka manawa like, manaʻo ʻia e hiki i ke koi no EVA ma ke kahua o ka ʻili photovoltaic glue ma koʻu ʻāina i ka makahiki 2025 ke piʻi a hiki i ka 45.05%.
ʻO kekahi mea maka nui ʻo POE hiki ke hoʻopili ʻia i ka photovoltaic, nā kaʻa, nā kaula, ka foaming, nā mīkini home a me nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe. I kēia manawa, ua lilo ka photovoltaic packaging glue film i wahi noi nui loa o POE. Wahi a ka "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", ua piʻi ka hapa mākeke o ka POE glue film kūloko a me ka foam polyethylene (EPE) glue film i ka makahiki 2021 i 23.1%. I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, me ka piʻi mau ʻana o ka hana o nā ʻāpana photovoltaic ma koʻu ʻāina a me ke komo mau ʻana o POE i ka photovoltaic glue film, ua piʻi mau ka noi POE kūloko.
Eia nō naʻe, no ka mea, he kiʻekiʻe nā pale o ke kaʻina hana POE, i kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe o nā ʻoihana kūloko i ka hiki ke POE, a ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana o POE a pau ma koʻu ʻāina e hilinaʻi nei i nā mea lawe mai. Mai ka makahiki 2017, ua hoʻomohala mau nā ʻoihana kūloko i nā huahana POE. Manaʻo ʻia ʻo Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry a me nā ʻoihana pilikino ʻē aʻe e hoʻokō i kahi pani kūloko o POE i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
Nā mea pākahiko Lithium: ua hoʻonui hou ʻia ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea nui ʻehā
I ka makahiki 2022, ua mau ke kiʻekiʻe o ka mākeke mālama ikehu no nā kaʻa ikehu hou a Kina a me nā pila lithium, e hoʻokele ana i ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā mea pila lithium e piʻi nui. Wahi a ka ʻikepili a ka China Automobile Association, mai Ianuali a Nowemapa 2022, ua hoʻopau ka hana ʻana a me ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou kūloko i 6.253 miliona a me 6.067 miliona, kēlā me kēia, he piʻi awelika makahiki ma hope o ka makahiki, a ua hiki ka māhele mākeke i 25%.
Manaʻo ʻia e kūʻai aku ka High-Tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) ma mua o 6.7 miliona mau kūʻai aku kaʻa ikehu hou kūloko i ka makahiki 2022; manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka mākeke kaʻa ikehu hou o Kina ma mua o 9 miliona i ka makahiki 2023. I ka makahiki 2022, manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pila lithium ma Kina ma mua o 100%, manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o nā hoʻouna pila mana ma mua o 110%, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o nā hoʻouna pila lithium mālama ikehu ma mua o 150%. ʻO ka ulu nui ʻana o nā hoʻouna pila lithium ua hoʻokele i nā mea nui ʻehā o ka maikaʻi, maikaʻi ʻole, diaphragm, electrolyte, a me nā mea pila lithium ʻē aʻe e like me ka lithium hexfluorophosphate a me ka foil keleawe i nā kekelē like ʻole.
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili i ka hapa mua o 2022, ua hoʻouna aku ʻo Kina Lithium Electric Electronic Materials i 770,000 tons, he piʻi ʻana o 62% makahiki-ma-makahiki; ʻo ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā mea electrode maikaʻi ʻole he 540,000 tons, he piʻi ʻana o 68% makahiki-ma-makahiki; 55%; ʻo ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā electrolyte he 330,000 tons, he piʻi ʻana o 63% makahiki-ma-makahiki. Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, i ka makahiki 2022, ʻo ka hoʻouna holoʻokoʻa o nā pākahi lithium nui ʻehā ma Kina i noho mau i ke ʻano ulu.
Ua wānana ʻo GGII e ʻoi aku ka mākeke pākahiko lithium kūloko ma mua o 1TWh i ka makahiki 2023. I waena o lākou, manaʻo ʻia e ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hoʻouna pākahiko mana ma mua o 800GWh, a ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hoʻouna pākahiko mālama ikehu ma mua o 180GWh, kahi e hoʻonui hou aku ai i ka nui o nā hoʻouna holoʻokoʻa o nā pākahiko lithium nui ʻehā.
ʻOiai ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai o ka lithium ore a me ka paʻakai lithium i Dekemaba 2022. Eia nō naʻe, i ka maka o nā brokers, ʻo kēia ke kumu nui o ka hopena o ke kau ʻole, a ʻaʻole i hiki mai ka "inflection point" o nā kumukūʻai lithium.
Manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo Huaxi Securities ʻo ka loli ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka paʻakai lithium ka loli maʻamau o ke kau kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻoihana, ʻaʻole he "kiko inflection". Manaʻoʻiʻo pū ʻo Shen Wanhongyuan Securities me ka hoʻokuʻu hou ʻana o ka hiki ke hana i nā mea maka i ka makahiki 2023, e hoʻomau ke ʻano o ka loaʻa kālā o ke kaulahao kaulahao ʻoihana pākahiko lithium mai luna a lalo. Manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo Zhejiang Business Securities ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hōʻike ʻana o nā kumuwaiwai lithium ma mua o ka mea e pono ai i ka hapa lua o 2023.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Ian-10-2023